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At a glance
The statistical model gives Monaco a 41% probability to beat Olympique Marseille, with the draw at 23% and a Olympique Marseille win at 37%.
The model estimates a 66% probability of more than 2.5 goals in Monaco vs Olympique Marseille.
The model puts the probability that both Monaco and Olympique Marseille score at 66%.
Monaco vs Olympique Marseille kicks off on Sunday 30 August 2026 at 18:45.
Monaco vs Olympique Marseille Preview
Welcome to Extratips and this Ligue 1 clash at Stade Louis II. Monaco host Marseille on 30 August 2026, and the market expects a tight but open game. The strongest prices point to Away 2.7000, BTTS Yes 1.4400, and Over 2.5 goals 1.5000. Our model also leans Marseille, with a 39.7% away-win chance, while BTTS Yes sits at 65.6% and Over 2.5 at 65.7%.
Monaco need home control, but Marseille carry enough punch to land the bigger moments. The setup hints at both teams finding space, especially if the first goal comes early. A 1-2 or 2-2 type match feels live, with tempo and finishing likely to decide it.
The key story is simple: Monaco’s home edge versus Marseille’s slight model edge away. That balance makes this a sharp watch for fans and a tricky one for punters.
Monaco vs Olympique Marseille Predictions & Analysis
Our prediction model gives Monaco a 41% win probability, Olympique Marseille 37%, and the draw 23%.
Both Teams to Score Prediction
BTTS leans toward 'Yes' at 66%, suggesting both teams are expected to score.
Goals Prediction
Goal expectations lean toward Over 2.5 at 66%, indicating a higher-scoring match is expected.
Predictions are based on statistical models and AI analysis. For informational purposes only - bet responsibly. How our predictions work
Who do you think will win?
Total votes: 77
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Monaco vs Olympique Marseille: frequently asked questions
Predictions are based on statistical models and AI analysis. For informational purposes only - bet responsibly.
Our picks
Lost1x22.7000
Olympique Marseille to win
The model gives Away a 39.7% probability, the highest in the 1X2 market. Marseille are priced at 2.7000, and the tight split with Monaco fits a close but slightly away-leaning game. Recent h2h trends and the model edge support a narrow Marseille result.
LostBoth Teams To Score1.4400
Both teams to score: Yes
The model gives Yes a 65.6% probability, so goals at both ends are the clear lean. That fits two attack-minded sides, a close 1X2 line, and a match that should open up in key moments.
LostOver/Under1.5000
Over 2.5 goals
The model gives Over 2.5 a 65.7% probability, which is strong support for a lively game. With BTTS also favored and both teams priced for scoring chances, a 2-1 or 1-2 style scoreline looks natural.
Our picks
Accumulator odds
Total Odds
5.83
Potential Winnings
$241.60
Olympique Marseille to win
1x2 / Away
Both teams to score: Yes
Both Teams To Score / Yes
Over 2.5 goals
Over/Under / Over 2.5
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*Odds available at time of writing.
Full Time Result
41%
Home
Fair odd 2.46
23%
Draw
Fair odd 4.39
37%
Away
Fair odd 2.74
Over 1.5 Goals
Over 85%
Under 15%
Over 2.5 Goals
Over 66%
Under 34%
Over 3.5 Goals
Over 45%
Under 55%
Both Teams To Score
Yes 66%
No 34%
First Half Winner
32%
Home
39%
Draw
29%
Away
Half Time / Full Time
HT \ FT
Home
Draw
Away
Home
23%
6%
3%
Draw
13%
14%
12%
Away
3%
5%
22%
Correct Score
Home goals (rows) × Away goals (columns)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
4.1
5.5
4.5
2.5
1
5.8
9.2
7.7
4.2
2
4.8
7.7
6.7
3.8
3
2.8
4.8
3.9
2.2
4
5
6
7
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
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Olympique Marseille0Monaco1| # | Team | P | W | D | L | DIFF | GLS | Pts | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 5:2 | 7 | WDW | |
| 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3:0 | 6 | WW | |
| 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 3:0 | 4 | WD | |
| 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 3:1 | 4 | DW | |
| 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 5:4 | 4 | WD | |
| 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2:1 | 4 | WD | |
| 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 6:4 | 3 | LW | |
| 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 4:2 | 3 | LW | |
| 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3:3 | 3 | WL | |
| 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 2:5 | 3 | WL | |
| 11 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4:4 | 2 | DD | |
| 12 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4:4 | 2 | DD | |
| 13 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4:5 | 1 | LD | |
| 14 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1:2 | 1 | LD | |
| 15 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1:2 | 1 | DL | |
| 16 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 2:5 | 1 | LDL | |
| 17 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0:3 | 1 | LD | |
| 18 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 3:8 | 0 | LL |
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