Our model makes Benfica the clear favorite here, giving the Away win a 44.3% probability, higher than both the Home win and the Draw. Benfica already beat AGF 3–1 in the first leg in Lisbon and leads the tie 3–1 on aggregate, showing their extra quality in the key moments. AGF now has to chase the game at a neutral venue in Denmark, which can open spaces for Benfica’s quick attackers to exploit. Benfica’s recent league form and deeper squad also suggest they are better equipped to manage the pressure of a playoff second leg, while AGF must take risks to overturn the deficit.

Our model gives BTTS Yes a 53.8% probability, slightly higher than No, and the first leg supports that view, with Benfica winning 3–1 and both sides finding the net. AGF now trails 3–1 on aggregate and must attack from the start, which should create chances for them but also leave gaps for Benfica’s forwards in transition. Benfica has shown they can create many scoring chances, while AGF proved they can at least trouble their defense once they push players forward, so another game where both teams get on the scoresheet is a realistic scenario.

Our model gives Over 2.5 goals a 51.8% probability, slightly higher than Under 2.5, and the first leg already produced four goals in a 3–1 Benfica win. With Benfica leading 3–1 on aggregate, AGF has no choice but to attack and take risks, which usually pushes matches toward more open play and extra scoring chances for both sides. Benfica’s strong attack and AGF’s need to chase the game at a neutral venue suggest that a lively match with at least three goals is more likely than a tight, low‑scoring battle. Taken together, the model edge and the game state point to a Benfica win in a goal‑rich contest where both teams score and the total goes over 2.5 goals.