The model gives Home a 60.3% probability, and Brighton also come in as the clear market favorite at 1.8100. At The Amex, that edge matters, especially against a Leeds side likely to face pressure away from home. Recent form and head-to-head trends also lean toward the hosts, who look better set to control the game.

The model gives No a 50.9% probability, just ahead of Yes. That slight lean fits a match where Brighton are favored to win while Leeds may struggle to break through. The odds also back a tighter game than the BTTS Yes line at 1.8000, so a clean-sheet style result has solid logic with the home side on top.

The model gives Over 2.5 a 50.2% probability, so it is only a narrow edge, but it still tops the market. Brighton’s home status and Leeds’ need to chase the game can open space, even if BTTS No is slightly preferred. Recent form, standings pressure, and the matchup profile all point to a game that can reach three goals.