The model gives Home a 55.8% probability, so Leverkusen are the clear lean. Their strong home edge at the BayArena and the shorter odds around 1.52-1.50 back that up. Union Berlin can be stubborn, but the favorite status is justified by the matchup, recent quality, and likely control of the game.

The model gives Yes a 55.2% probability, which points slightly toward goals at both ends. Leverkusen should create enough at home, while Union Berlin have enough threat to nick one if the game opens up. The odds also lean toward Yes at 1.57, and the h2h pattern suggests both sides can find moments.

The model gives Over 2.5 a 55.8% probability, so the goal line edges toward a lively match. Leverkusen's home attacking upside and Union Berlin's need to stay competitive make a 3-goal game very possible. The 1.98 price on the 3.25 line also reflects a market that expects chances and end-to-end spells.