Our model rates an Inter win at 41.1%, slightly higher than Dortmund’s 35.1%, showing a small but clear edge for the Italian side. Inter have also dominated recent European meetings, winning three of the last four against Dortmund and staying unbeaten in four of five clashes in the Champions League and European Cup, including a 2-0 victory in Dortmund earlier this year. Inter’s league form has been strong as well, with a run of wins and very few defeats in their domestic campaign, while Dortmund have been more up‑and‑down in big European nights. With Inter’s solid defence, clinical counters and better recent record in Germany, backing the away win fits both the model numbers and the matchup on the pitch.

Our model gives Both Teams To Score Yes a 59.7% probability, which makes it more likely than not that both sides find the net. Dortmund at home rarely go scoreless in Europe, even against well‑organised defences, and they will push hard in front of the Yellow Wall after that recent 0-2 home defeat to Inter. At the same time, Inter’s attack has been in strong form in Serie A and Europe, with Lautaro Martínez and their supporting cast regularly on the scoresheet, and they have already scored multiple times in Dortmund in past Champions League visits. Given Dortmund’s attacking intent but occasional defensive lapses, and Inter’s balanced threat, a 1-2 or 1-3 type game looks very plausible, keeping this BTTS Yes call consistent with our Away win pick.

Our model gives Over 2.5 goals a 58.2% probability, so it leans clearly toward a game with at least three goals. Dortmund’s home European matches often open up once the first goal arrives, and their pressing style can leave gaps that clinical sides like Inter exploit. Inter have shown they can both control games and hit hard in transition, and with their strong domestic scoring record, it is reasonable to expect them to create plenty of chances at Signal Iduna Park. Combining our other selections – Inter to win and BTTS Yes – the most logical scorelines all land on three or more goals, such as 1-2 or 2-3, which keeps this Over 2.5 call fully aligned with the rest of the predictions.