The model gives Away a 38.8% probability, the highest in the 1X2 market. Casa Pia at home can be hard to break down, but the away side has the edge in the numbers and looks slightly stronger on current balance. The head-to-head and recent form context should support a tight game with Moreirense just ahead.

The model gives No a 53.2% probability, which makes it the top BTTS call. This fits a match that may stay cautious and low event, with both teams likely to protect shape first. Recent form and the likely close scoreline also point toward one side failing to score.

The model gives Under 2.5 a 58.4% probability, the clearest lean in the goal markets. Casa Pia vs Moreirense projects as a controlled, compact game rather than an open shootout. That suits a low-scoring script, with recent form, standings pressure, and head-to-head trends all backing a tight finish.