Our model makes Villarreal slight favourites here, giving the Away win a 40.6% chance, compared to 32.2% for Alavés and 27.2% for the draw. Villarreal arrive with strong attacking rhythm after a goal-filled end to last season and a positive pre-season on the road, including wins at PSV and Galatasaray, plus a 2-2 away draw at Racing Santander to start La Liga, showing they can score and create chances away from home. Alavés have been solid but less explosive, grinding out narrow wins against Barcelona and Oviedo last spring and starting the new campaign with a 3-0 home win over Getafe, then a 1-1 draw at Rayo Vallecano. Head-to-head history is quite balanced over the years, but Villarreal have often found goals in this matchup, and their higher individual quality in attack usually gives them an extra edge. With Villarreal’s recent record of three wins and a draw in their last five competitive games, plus better offensive numbers, backing the Away win in line with the model’s 40.6% probability looks reasonable, while still respecting the fact that Alavés are competitive at Mendizorroza.

Our model gives Both Teams To Score Yes a 54.7% probability, slightly higher than No at 45.3%, which points to a game where both attacks are more likely to find the net. Villarreal’s recent form supports this: in their last five matches across league and friendlies, they have scored at least two goals in four of them, including a 5-1 win over Atlético Madrid and a 2-2 away draw at Racing Santander, but they also concede fairly often. Alavés, meanwhile, are tougher at home, keeping clean sheets in narrow home wins over Barcelona and Getafe, yet they also conceded in their recent 1-1 draw at Rayo Vallecano and in several spring fixtures, which shows they are not airtight at the back. The head-to-head trend between these sides has often produced goals for both, with results like 1-1 and 2-1 appearing in the recent series, reflecting a pattern of open games where neither defence fully dominates. Given Villarreal’s attacking firepower and some defensive gaps, plus Alavés’ improved home scoring, both teams getting on the scoresheet fits the model’s 54.7% edge for BTTS Yes.

Our model gives Under 2.5 a 51.6% probability, slightly higher than Over 2.5 at 48.4%, suggesting a tighter game is a bit more likely than a high-scoring one. Alavés are a big part of that picture: their recent league matches at Mendizorroza have often been low-scoring, with 1-0 wins over Barcelona and Oviedo and a controlled 3-0 success over Getafe where they managed the tempo and protected a lead well. Even away from home, they have seen several 1-0 or 1-1 type results, which points to a side that prefers structure and compact defending over chaos. Villarreal do have firepower and have been involved in some higher-scoring games, but they also showed a more measured side late last season, for example in the 0-2 defeat at Rayo Vallecano followed by a more controlled 5-1 display against Atlético where they tightened up once in front. Historically, this fixture can be cagey, especially in Vitoria-Gasteiz, with Alavés often dragging Villarreal into physical, tactical battles that produce one or two goals rather than end-to-end thrillers. Putting all that together, the slight model edge towards Under 2.5 at 51.6%, combined with Alavés’ conservative home approach, supports a prediction of a narrow Villarreal win in a game that finishes with two goals or fewer.