The model gives Home a 41.5% probability, the highest in this fixture. Alavés also have the slight edge at Mendizorroza, where home pressure usually matters, while the market keeps them just ahead of Osasuna. That balance fits a tight game, but with the home side marginally more likely to take it.

The model gives BTTS Yes a 51.0% probability, so goals at both ends are slightly favored. This also matches a matchup that looks close on paper, with the home side likely to push and Osasuna still dangerous enough to nick one. The pricing near even money supports that view.

The model gives Under 2.5 a 54.7% probability, making a low-scoring match the top call. Alavés vs Osasuna has the feel of a compact La Liga game, and the market also leans under at 1.5300. With both sides expected to be careful, a tight scoreline fits the numbers and the game state.