Our model slightly favours the visitors here, giving Crystal Palace an Away win a 37.0% chance compared with 36.0% for Everton at home and 26.9% for the draw. Everton play at the rebuilt Hill Dickinson Stadium, but Palace have caused them problems in recent years and arrive with a more balanced squad. Last league meetings have been tight, yet Everton’s edge has narrowed: the last four clashes saw Everton 2-1 Palace (Sep 2024), Palace 1-2 Everton (Feb 2025), Everton 2-1 Palace (Oct 2025) and earlier a 1-1 draw in Feb 2024, with three of those four decided by a single goal. Everton finished the 2025/26 campaign 13th on 49 points, Palace 15th on 45, so the gap in quality is modest and does not offset Palace’s away threat. Early 2025/26 form showed Everton strong at times, but Palace stubborn, drawing both opening games. With both sides still bedding into the new 2026/27 season, Palace’s ability to counter and nick close matches fits a model that leans marginally to an Away win at 37.0%.

The model points to an open contest, giving BTTS Yes a 56.0% probability, ahead of 44.0% for No. That aligns with the market, where Yes is priced around 1.6600 versus 2.1000 for No, reflecting expectations of goals at both ends. Recent head‑to‑head meetings support this view: Everton 2-1 Crystal Palace in Sep 2024, Crystal Palace 1-2 Everton in Feb 2025, and Everton 2-1 Palace in Oct 2025 all featured three goals and both teams scoring. Even the 1-1 draw in Feb 2024 followed the same pattern. Everton’s 2025/26 league record (47 scored, 50 conceded; 13th with 49 points) shows a side capable in attack but vulnerable defensively, while Palace’s 41 for and 51 against (15th, 45 points) underline similar issues. Neither defence is watertight, and both have forwards who can punish lapses. With Palace backed for a narrow Away win and our model giving BTTS Yes 56.0%, goals at both ends look more likely than a clean sheet for either side.

Our model makes a relatively goal‑rich match the marginal favourite, assigning Over 2.5 goals a 50.9% probability compared with 49.1% for Under. Bookmaker prices reinforce this near coin‑flip leaning towards goals, with Over 2.5 around 1.9000–1.9200 in the main goal line markets. Recent clashes support the overs angle: Everton 2-1 Crystal Palace in Sep 2024, Palace 1-2 Everton in Feb 2025 and Everton 2-1 Palace in Oct 2025 each produced three goals. Everton’s 2025/26 stats, 47 scored and 50 conceded, and Palace’s 41 scored and 51 conceded, point to defences that allow chances and attacks that take them. Our model’s 56.0% BTTS Yes probability also backs the idea that both sides will find the net, which naturally pushes totals upward. Combined with a slight model edge for a Palace Away win, a 2-1 or even 3-1 scoreline fits both the 50.9% Over call and the way these teams have been playing.