Our model makes Roma the most likely winner here, giving the Away outcome a 41.7% probability, higher than both Home at 31.6% and Draw at 26.8%. Roma have dominated this matchup in recent years; in the last five head-to-head games, Roma have three wins and two draws, including scores like 4-1, 2-1 and a 0-0 and 1-1 in Lecce. That record shows Roma usually find a way to edge Lecce, even when the hosts make it tight. Lecce are always tougher at Stadio Via del Mare, but their recent home run has been mixed, with wins over mid-table sides balanced by losses to stronger visitors. Roma’s away form has improved with solid defensive displays and narrow wins on the road, which fits well with both the model edge and the bookmaker price of 1.5500 on the Away win. Given Roma’s superior squad depth, better recent league finishes and the psychological edge from repeated positive results in this fixture, backing Roma to take all three points lines up with both the model’s 41.7% projection and the market view.

Our model gives BTTS Yes a 53.6% probability, slightly ahead of No at 46.4%, so the numbers lean toward both sides finding the net. Recent meetings back that up: in the last five head-to-head clashes since 2022, four of them saw at least one goal from Lecce and Roma, with scorelines like 2-1, 4-1 and 1-1, showing that this fixture often opens up, even if Roma usually come out on top. Lecce at home tend to be more adventurous, pushing full-backs high and relying on quick counters, which often leaves gaps but also creates chances; they have scored in most of their recent home league games, even against stronger teams, though they rarely keep clean sheets. Roma’s away games, on the other hand, often feature a controlled start and more risk after the break, which has led to both teams scoring in a good share of their recent trips. The bookmaker price of 2.1000 on BTTS Yes hints that the market rates No as likelier, but our model’s 53.6% edge toward Yes, combined with Lecce’s leaky defence and Roma’s attacking quality, makes a 1-2 or 1-3 type scoreline a very realistic scenario.

Our model slightly favors a lower-scoring match here, giving Under 2.5 a 50.6% probability against 49.4% for Over 2.5, so it leans toward a tight game. The recent head-to-head record in Lecce supports this: several clashes at Stadio Via del Mare have ended 0-0 or 1-1, with Roma often doing just enough without turning the game into a goal fest. Lecce’s home matches against top-half sides also tend to be cagey, with scores like 0-2, 1-0 and 1-1 appearing often, as they sit deep, compress space and look to nick something on set pieces or counters. Roma’s away approach under their recent coaches has favored control and structure over wild attacking, producing many 0-1 and 1-2 results where the game stays within two or three goals. The main bookmakers reflect this tilt with odds around 1.6500 on Under 2.5 at the 2.5 line, matching our model’s 50.6% edge. Putting it together with our other picks, a likely outcome is Roma winning 0-1 or 1-2, which fits both Roma to win, BTTS Yes being only slightly more likely, and the Under 2.5 line staying in play in a tight, tactical contest.