Our model favours a home win here, giving Nottingham Forest (Home) a 45.3% chance, clearly ahead of the draw at 24.4% and the away win at 30.3%. Forest have dominated recent meetings, winning four of the last five clashes, including 3–0 and 3–0 scorelines and a 2–1 away victory, which builds real belief at The City Ground. Tottenham finished below Forest last season in the table and have carried that shaky form into the new campaign, sitting near the bottom with a poor goal difference. Forest, by contrast, look strong at home, with several recent wins on their own pitch and a more solid defensive record. With the crowd behind them and confidence from this head‑to‑head run, the model’s 45.3% probability for a home win, supported by odds around 2.50, lines up well with the underlying form.

Our model expects an open game and assigns Both Teams To Score – Yes a 56.5% probability, higher than the 43.5% for No. Tottenham still carry attacking threat even in poor form and tend to create chances, while Forest’s recent wins over Spurs have come with multiple goals scored, showing they can open them up again. Both sides have leaky defences, reflected in their negative goal differences last season and early this campaign, which often leads to goals at both ends rather than clean sheets. With bookmaker odds for BTTS Yes around 1.80 and our model leaning strongly that way at 56.5%, a scenario where Forest edge the game 2–1 or 3–1 feels very realistic and fits both the numbers and the trend.

The model points to a lively contest, giving Over 2.5 goals a 53.4% chance versus 46.6% for Under, so it slightly but clearly favours a higher‑scoring game. Recent head‑to‑head meetings often went over this line, with results like 3–0, 3–0, 3–1 and 2–1, showing that when Forest and Spurs meet, one side usually finds multiple goals. Both clubs come in with defensive issues and negative goal differences, but they still have forwards capable of punishing mistakes, which increases the odds of a 2–1 or 3–1 score rather than a tight 1–0. Market prices around 2.00 for Over 2.5, combined with the model’s 53.4% probability and our expectation of a home win with BTTS, make a high‑scoring Forest victory the most coherent outlook. In short, we see Forest winning, both teams scoring, and at least three goals on the board.