Our model makes the Home win the top 1X2 outcome, giving Osasuna a 48.1% chance to take all three points against Levante, clearly higher than the draw at 26.0% and away win at 25.9%. Osasuna are usually strong at El Sadar and finished last season level on points with Levante, but with a better goal difference, showing a slightly tighter defense and similar attacking output. Recent head-to-head clashes in La Liga have also leaned Osasuna’s way, with key home wins like 3–1 and 2–0 in past seasons, while Levante’s successes tend to come in Valencia. The full-time odds around 1.83 for Home, compared with 3.50–3.60 for the draw and 4.05–4.50 for the away win, reflect this edge and match the model view that the hosts are more likely to grind out a result in front of their fans.

For the BTTS market, our model points to Yes as the preferred option, with a probability of 54.3% versus 45.7% for No, suggesting we are more likely to see both attacks find the net. Last season both sides ended with similar goal figures, Levante scoring 47 and conceding 61, Osasuna scoring 44 and conceding 50, which underlines that neither defense is watertight and both can create chances. The recent La Liga head-to-head record also shows several open games, including 3–2 and 3–1 scorelines, where momentum swung during the match and both teams posed a threat. The BTTS odds are close, with Yes at 1.80 and No at 1.95, but that slight market lean toward goals for both teams fits the model’s view and makes BTTS Yes a reasonable call alongside a narrow Osasuna win.

Our model favours Over 2.5 goals in this fixture, assigning it a 51.1% chance compared with 48.9% for Under, so it very slightly expects a match with at least three goals. Both teams closed last season with negative goal differences yet decent scoring numbers, which often points to open, back-and-forth games rather than tight, low-scoring battles. In their recent direct meetings, several clashes have gone over this line – such as 3–2, 3–1 and 2–0 – showing that when Osasuna and Levante meet, stretches of end-to-end play are common. The goal line odds reflect this balance, with Over 2.5 around 1.87–1.95 and Under 2.5 near 1.83–1.91, suggesting the market also sees a slight tilt toward an attacking contest. Taken together with our BTTS Yes and Home win picks, a 2–1 Osasuna victory looks like a coherent and realistic scenario rather than a locked outcome.