Our model makes Real Sociedad the slight favorite here, giving the Home win a 41.1% probability. Real Sociedad play at Anoeta, with home support expected to be strong after a poor start to the league. They lost their first two games and sit 20th with 0 points, so motivation should be very high to react in front of their crowd. Celta, on the other hand, have started a bit better with 1 point from two games and are currently 14th, but they still have issues in attack with only one goal scored so far. Recent head-to-head meetings at this ground have leaned towards La Real; their last clash in San Sebastián ended 3-1 for Real Sociedad in January 2026, showing they can open up Celta’s back line. Over a wider historical sample, Real Sociedad have more wins than Celta in La Liga, which supports the model’s slight bias towards the hosts. While both teams come in under pressure, playing at home, needing points, and having a positive recent home H2H edge all fit well with the model’s 41.1% projection for a Home win. This makes a narrow Real Sociedad victory a logical call, even if it is far from certain.

Our model gives Both Teams to Score Yes a 50.7% probability, making it the top BTTS outcome even though it is almost a coin flip. Real Sociedad have conceded five goals in their first two league matches, showing defensive problems but also matches that tend to open up. Celta have scored only one league goal so far but usually create chances with their fluid front line and have found the net in several of their recent visits to San Sebastián, including the 3-1 defeat earlier in 2026. The last five direct meetings show a mix of scorelines, but there is a clear pattern of games where both sides get on the board when the match opens up, especially when Sociedad attack at home and leave space behind. La Real’s need to chase their first points from bottom place should push them forward, while Celta, sitting 14th and under pressure themselves, will look to exploit transitions. Put together, an open match where each side finds at least one goal lines up well with the model’s slight lean towards BTTS Yes at 50.7%.

Our model gives Under 2.5 goals a 55.2% probability, making it the favored total line over the 44.8% for Over 2.5. Even though both teams can score, their early-season numbers suggest tight games: Real Sociedad have scored only one goal in two league matches, while conceding five. Celta have an even more modest attack so far, with just one goal scored and two conceded in their first two fixtures. That combination points to matches where chances exist, but finishing and rhythm are not yet sharp. Several recent meetings between these sides have also produced low scores, mixed in with the occasional higher-scoring clash, so there is no consistent pattern of goal-fests across the last five H2H results. With Real Sociedad desperate for points from bottom place and perhaps a bit cautious not to fall further, and Celta likely happy to take something from a difficult away trip from mid-table, a controlled, cagey game with one or two goals fits both the statistics and the model’s 55.2% edge for the Under. This also remains compatible with a 1-0 or 2-0 home win, or even a 1-1 draw, all of which land below the 2.5 line.