Our model makes Arsenal slight favourites, giving the Away win a 43.2% probability, higher than both Slavia’s 32.2% and the draw at 24.5%. Arsenal have dominated this matchup, with multiple wins and no defeats in recent head-to-head games, including a heavy away victory in Prague. Their recent European campaigns show a strong record in league-phase play, while Slavia step up from domestic dominance to a higher level of opposition. Slavia’s home form is usually strong, but they have struggled to contain Arsenal’s attack, conceding several goals across their last five meetings. Given Arsenal’s deeper squad, higher individual quality and their habit of finishing chances in Europe, siding with the Away win aligns with both our model numbers and the historical pattern.

Our model gives BTTS Yes a 53.4% probability, slightly ahead of No at 46.6%, suggesting a small but real edge toward both sides finding the net. Slavia are usually strong at home and often score in front of their own fans, even when facing bigger clubs in Europe, thanks to an aggressive pressing style and quick transitions. Arsenal, on the other hand, almost always create chances away from home, and their recent European trips have produced goals both for and against, as their attacking intent sometimes leaves space at the back. With Slavia’s willingness to attack and Arsenal’s firepower and occasional defensive lapses, a game where both teams score fits the tactical matchup and recent trends.

Our model gives Over 2.5 a 52.7% probability, slightly higher than the 47.3% chance for Under, pointing to a mild lean towards a more open game. Past meetings between these sides have often produced clear wins for Arsenal with multiple goals, including a 3-0 and a 4-0, showing that when Arsenal click, scorelines can quickly become high. Slavia’s home matches in Europe tend to be high-energy, and they rarely sit back for 90 minutes, which can stretch the game and lead to chances at both ends. With our model also favouring BTTS Yes and an Arsenal win, a 2-1, 3-1 or even 3-2 type scoreline looks realistic, all of which land Over 2.5 goals.