Our model makes Lech Poznań clear favourites here, giving the away win a 51.5% probability, compared to 26.5% for Thun and 22.0% for the draw. Lech already carry a huge edge after the first leg, leading 7–0 on aggregate, which underlines the gap in quality and confidence between the sides. Thun are at home, but they struggled badly in Poznań, conceding seven and failing to score, and now must chase the tie against a side comfortable on the ball and ruthless in transition. Recent form reports show Lech in strong domestic shape near the top of the Ekstraklasa table, while Thun are fighting in a lower tier and lack depth at this level. With Lech’s attack in rhythm, their defensive organisation solid, and Thun forced to open up and take risks, the model’s 51.5% for an away win fits both the data and the tactical picture.

Our model points strongly toward goals at both ends, giving BTTS – Yes a 62.5% probability versus 37.5% for No. Even though Lech kept a clean sheet in the 7–0 first leg, Thun now have no choice but to attack at home and restore pride, which should lead to more shots and space behind their defence. Match stats from the first leg show Thun creating attempts even in a heavy defeat, while Lech’s forwards were clinical and continue to carry a big threat on the break. Lech are unlikely to shut up shop completely despite the aggregate cushion, and a more open, end‑to‑end game at Stockhorn Arena looks very realistic. Putting these factors together with the model’s 62.5% rating for BTTS Yes, both teams finding the net is a logical expectation.

Our model is very bullish on goals in this second leg, giving Over 2.5 goals a 65.4% probability, compared to 34.6% for Under 2.5. The first match ended 7–0 to Lech Poznań, showing how dangerous their attack is and how much Thun struggled to contain them over 90 minutes. With Thun at home needing a miracle, they are expected to play more aggressively, press higher, and commit bodies forward, which naturally opens gaps for Lech’s counter‑attacks. Lech, meanwhile, have no pressing need to keep the score down and can play with freedom, rotating but still fielding enough firepower to hurt Thun. Given the aggregate scoreline, the attacking profiles of both teams, and the model’s 65.4% probability, a match with at least three goals is more likely than a tight, low‑scoring affair.